In the House of Commons report it states ‘The National Academy of Sciences has estimated that if a magnetic storm that occurred in May 1921 was repeated today 130 million people in the US would lose electricity and more than 350 transformers would be at risk of permanent damage’. Avi Schnur, Chair of the EIS Council added that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) had estimated that the duration of the impact would be 5 to 10 years. He thought it would be fair to say that the conclusions about the UK would not be better.
The ‘reasonable worst case’ for a severe space weather event is based on the Carrington Event which occurred in 1859, which saw some of the largest space weather phenomena ever recorded, however many other events have since been recorded. But with our dependency on electricity never has the threat been so great.
The danger has been prioritised by the Cabinet Office as the sun enters the most active point in its 11-year cycle – its solar maximum, which is also coupled with another super cycle which experts believe only occurs every few hundred years.
Mark Gibbs, one of the Met Office's representatives on the panel, told the Observer newspaper earlier this year that he could not "go into details" about the repercussions of an occurrence of the most damaging type of space weather, but added that a solar storm could induce currents in power lines leading to a failure of the main grid; meddle with the components in planes and ultimately provoke a major civil emergency.
The UK government published a response to the Defence Committee’s report on the developing threat of Electro-Magnetic Pulses (EMP) produced by space weather. The report stated that EMP poses “known and significant” risks to the UK infrastructure, including the National Grid and satellite networks.
The government has still not started to warn its citizens, despite being elected to serve and protect them.
The National Grid has already started to change the design requirements for some of its transformers and increased its power reserve capacity in an attempt to withstand power fluctuations, but at a cost to its customers who will see an increase of around £7 per household next year, along with other taxes rises as the government stumps up cash too.
The House of Commons report concludes with this rather concerning statement;
The consequences of EMP events must be addressed specifically: generic civil contingency plans which address blackouts and temporary loss of electronic infrastructure caused by a range of events are not sufficient. Space weather is a global threat and may affect many regions and countries simultaneously. This means that there is scope for mutual assistance, but also that there is no safe place from which it can be assumed that help will come. It is time that the Government began to approach this matter with the seriousness it deserves.
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LATEST NEWS:
Home Office decline Freedom of Information request, citing Space Weather is a matter of 'National Security' - 2012 click to read their reply
The Freedom of Information Act is there to help ensure transparency, as the Act carries a presumption in favour of disclosure, but it also provides exemption provisions which may be used to either withhold information in specified circumstances, or to neither confirm nor deny that information is or is not held. Some of these exemptions, referred to as ‘qualified exemptions’, are subject to a Public Interest Test.
The Home Office in this instance have said that the subject of space weather is a matter relating to national security and have chosen not to disclose any information. Concerning to say the least.
The National Grid admitted that in the event of an extremely severe storm, long term blackouts could be a possibility. They went on to say that replacing a transformer can take two or more months depending on the availability and location of spares. In this extreme event scenario the National Grid estimates that the probability of disconnection would affect 91% of Great Britain as a whole.